Docs/Reference/Ownership/Get Trajectory Probabilities
GET/v1/companies/{code}/ownership/trajectories/{filer_code}/probabilitiesTier · Institutional

Get Trajectory Probabilities

Get conditional probabilities for a specific active trajectory.

Returns P(reaching 10%, 20%, 33%) and P(exit within 6 months) based on the filer's current stake, streak, and purpose compared to historical data. Uses CoxPH survival model when available, falls back to base rates.

Path parameters · 2

Variables interpolated into the URL path.

codestringrequired

Securities or EDINET code of the issuer

filer_codestringrequired

EDINET code of the filer

Request headers · 1

Authentication.

Authorizationstringrequired

Production API key. Pass it as Bearer ax_live_…

Returns · 200

The standard { data, meta } envelope. data contains TrajectoryProbabilitiesOut.

Envelope

dataTrajectoryProbabilitiesOut

A single result object.

metaMeta

Pagination and request metadata, including request_id, data_as_of, and ontology_version.

ontology_version 2.1.0replay meta.as_of · ?as_of=<token>

TrajectoryProbabilitiesOut

reach_10pctnumber | null

P(reaching 10%)

reach_20pctnumber | null

P(reaching 20%)

reach_33pctnumber | null

P(reaching 33% blocking minority)

exit_within_6mnumber | null

P(exiting within 6 months)

sample_sizeinteger

Number of historical trajectories in matching bucket

default 0
confidence_levelstring

low, medium, or high

default low
model_typestring

Model used: base_rate or coxph

default base_rate

Errors

Standard HTTP status codes plus a typed error.code in the { error: { code, message } } envelope.

Every endpoint returns the same typed error envelope ({ error: { code, message } }). For the full list of codes, see the Errors reference.